Understanding Rollout Error in Graph World Models

Abstract: World models are often used for planning by rolling learned dynamics forward. Many planning environments, however, are not vectors or images; they are graphs of agents, tools, skills, routes, and dependencies. In these settings, a local prediction error may stay local or spread through the graph, and the failure mode changes again when edges are predicted rather than fixed. This paper studies long-horizon rollout error in Graph World Models (GWMs). We formulate a unified fixed-edge and dynamic-edge GWM framework with action nodes for node-, edge-, and graph-level decisions. We develop graph-valued rollout bounds that separate topology-induced amplification from model-induced amplification, and we introduce a joint node-edge operator for dynamic-edge rollouts. Guided by the analysis, we propose Error-Aware GWM, which combines spectral regularization, rollout consistency, and critical-node weighting. Across synthetic topologies and heterogeneous agent-graph testbeds, rollout error and planning regret grow with horizon, dynamic-edge training is needed when structure evolves, and Error-Aware GWM prevents long-horizon divergence while preserving prediction accuracy. Real-world graph benchmarks clarify the scope of GWMs: they are most useful for dynamic graph rollout and agent planning, while specialized graph models remain strong on static or sparse prediction tasks.