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Validate Atwood Model Across CCF Group Sizes

Validate the Atwood shock-based common cause failure model for groups of components of varying sizes by demonstrating that its parameterization and staggered-failure generation accurately reflect observed behavior when used within dynamic probabilistic risk assessment models.

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Background

The paper proposes a dynamic implementation of the Atwood shock model to generate staggered common cause failures in time and demonstrates consistency with Alpha-factor parameters via simulation. While the example involves four Emergency Diesel Generators, the authors note broader issues in modeling CCF in time that require formal validation across different group sizes.

This open problem focuses on confirming that the Atwood model remains valid and accurate for common cause failure groups beyond the specific case paper, ensuring reliability of its use in dynamic PRA across systems with varying redundancy levels.

References

Nevertheless, some open questions concerning how to model CCF in time remain and further research should be performed in order to :

  • Validate the Atwood model for the case of CCF group of different sizes;
  • Validate the proposed staggered mechanism for longer mission times (which may be affected by the lack of operating data);
  • Investigate how to integrate CCF on demand;
  • Explore how to model CCF in case of repair;
  • Compare parametric model (Alpha) vs shock models (Atwood) for dynamic studies.
Modeling Common Cause Failure in Dynamic PRA (2406.08879 - Picoco et al., 13 Jun 2024) in Section 5. Conclusions and Perspectives