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Model Common Cause Failures with Repair

Explore modeling strategies for common cause failures in systems with repair within dynamic probabilistic risk assessment frameworks, establishing how shocks, failure resampling, and repair processes should be represented and combined.

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Background

The presented dynamic implementation assumes scenarios without multiple shocks within the same sequence and focuses on failure generation and tracking. Incorporating repair dynamics alongside common cause shocks introduces additional complexity that the authors identify as an unresolved issue.

Addressing this problem would enable more realistic modeling of operational systems where repairs and maintenance interact with common cause phenomena over time.

References

Nevertheless, some open questions concerning how to model CCF in time remain and further research should be performed in order to :

  • Validate the Atwood model for the case of CCF group of different sizes;
  • Validate the proposed staggered mechanism for longer mission times (which may be affected by the lack of operating data);
  • Investigate how to integrate CCF on demand;
  • Explore how to model CCF in case of repair;
  • Compare parametric model (Alpha) vs shock models (Atwood) for dynamic studies.
— Modeling Common Cause Failure in Dynamic PRA (2406.08879 - Picoco et al., 13 Jun 2024) in Section 5. Conclusions and Perspectives