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Compare Alpha-factor vs Atwood Models for Dynamic Studies

Compare the parametric Alpha-factor common cause failure model and the shock-based Atwood common cause failure model within dynamic probabilistic risk assessment studies to determine their relative performance, assumptions, and suitability for modeling time-distributed common cause failures.

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Background

The paper converts Alpha-factor parameters to Atwood model parameters and demonstrates agreement via simulation, but a systematic comparative evaluation in dynamic contexts remains undeveloped.

This open problem seeks to quantify differences between parametric and shock-based approaches when modeling CCF events over time, guiding method selection for dynamic PRA applications.

References

Nevertheless, some open questions concerning how to model CCF in time remain and further research should be performed in order to :

  • Validate the Atwood model for the case of CCF group of different sizes;
  • Validate the proposed staggered mechanism for longer mission times (which may be affected by the lack of operating data);
  • Investigate how to integrate CCF on demand;
  • Explore how to model CCF in case of repair;
  • Compare parametric model (Alpha) vs shock models (Atwood) for dynamic studies.
— Modeling Common Cause Failure in Dynamic PRA (2406.08879 - Picoco et al., 13 Jun 2024) in Section 5. Conclusions and Perspectives