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Validate Staggered Failure Mechanism for Longer Mission Times

Validate the staggered failure mechanism introduced for dynamic common cause failure modeling—where failures occur in a staggered way following lethal or non-lethal shocks—under longer mission times, particularly in contexts with limited operating data.

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Background

The modeling framework resamples failure times after lethal and non-lethal shocks to enforce staggered failures within a mission time window. Simulations over 24 hours showed agreement with converted Alpha-factor parameters, but the authors emphasize that longer mission times may pose challenges due to data scarcity.

This open question targets empirical and methodological validation of the staggered mechanism beyond the studied horizon, ensuring its robustness when mission durations extend and available operating data may be insufficient.

References

Nevertheless, some open questions concerning how to model CCF in time remain and further research should be performed in order to :

  • Validate the Atwood model for the case of CCF group of different sizes;
  • Validate the proposed staggered mechanism for longer mission times (which may be affected by the lack of operating data);
  • Investigate how to integrate CCF on demand;
  • Explore how to model CCF in case of repair;
  • Compare parametric model (Alpha) vs shock models (Atwood) for dynamic studies.
— Modeling Common Cause Failure in Dynamic PRA (2406.08879 - Picoco et al., 13 Jun 2024) in Section 5. Conclusions and Perspectives