Compliance with the 90% post-mission-disposal success guideline

Determine whether the approximately 90% post-mission-disposal success rate recommended for maintaining the orbital environment can be fully achieved in practice, given that current post-mission-disposal success rates are approximately 60%.

Background

The paper discusses post-mission disposal as a necessary measure for mitigating the growth of the low-Earth-orbit debris population. Prior research cited in the paper indicates that an average post-mission-disposal success rate of 90% is needed, while other studies suggest that even this rate may be insufficient. Because the reported current success rate is approximately 60%, the practical feasibility of fully complying with the 90% guideline remains unresolved. This uncertainty motivates the broader need for effective end-of-life support missions, including low-thrust deorbiting of malfunctioned or non-maneuverable satellites.

References

Since this requirement is substantially higher than today's moderate PMD success rate (approximately 60%), it is unclear whether this guideline can be fully complied with.

— Assessing Collision Probability in Low-Thrust Deorbit  (2608.17245 - Fukii et al., 18 Aug 2026) in Section 1, Introduction