Future launch-price trajectory for Mars-reflector deployment

Determine how far launch prices to an 800-km Earth polar orbit will fall, in order to establish reliable cost estimates for deploying a Mars-orbiting solar-reflector constellation.

Background

The paper estimates constellation costs from the reflector area, areal density, manufacturing cost, and launch cost to an 800-km Earth polar orbit. The authors emphasize that the launch-cost assumption is highly uncertain because future launch prices are not established. Resolving this uncertainty is necessary for assessing the economic feasibility of transporting a large solar-reflector constellation to Mars orbit.

References

Multiplying by the estimated cost per kilogram to~make and launch to 800~km Earth polar orbit (both of which are very uncertain, because we do not know how far launch prices will fall) gives constellation cost.

— Doubling Sunlight for a Human Mars Base With Orbiting Solar Reflectors  (2609.00538 - Essunfeld et al., 1 Sep 2026) in Section 5.3, Cost and benefits