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Can LLM Improve for Expert Forecast Combination? Evidence from the European Central Bank Survey (2506.23154v1)
Published 29 Jun 2025 in stat.AP
Abstract: This study explores the potential of LLMs to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive framework to evaluate LLM-driven ensemble predictions under varying conditions, including the intensity of expert disagreement, dynamics of herd behavior, and limitations in attention allocation.
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