Dominant Design Prediction with Phylogenetic Networks

Abstract: This study proposes an effective method to predict technology development from an evolutionary perspective. Product evolution is the result of technological evolution and market selection. A phylogenetic network is the main method to study product evolution. The formation of the dominant design determines the trajectory of technology development. How to predict future dominant design has become a key issue in technology forecasting and new product development. We define the dominant product and use machine learning methods, combined with product evolutionary theory, to construct a Fully Connected Phylogenetic Network dataset to effectively predict the future dominant design.