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Orbital distribution of TRS asteroids vs meteoroids

Ascertain whether the differing dynamical processes acting on asteroids compared to sub-meter-sized meteoroids within the Taurid Resonant Swarm produce substantially different orbital outcomes relative to the meteoroid-based distribution inferred from observed fireballs and meteors, and determine whether such differences would alter constraints derived from TRS simulations used to guide searches for asteroid-sized objects.

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Background

Population constraints for TRS asteroids in this paper rely on simulations guided by the observed distribution of fireballs and meteors, implicitly assuming that asteroid-sized objects share similar orbital characteristics. However, asteroids and meteoroids experience different dynamical processes (e.g., nongravitational forces, collisional histories), which could lead to distinct orbital distributions.

Clarifying whether these dynamical differences lead to substantially different orbital outcomes for TRS asteroids is critical, because any divergence from the meteoroid-based distribution could affect derived upper limits and impact-risk estimates.

References

It is well known that larger bodies such as asteroids experience noticeably different dynamical processes compared to sub-meter-sized objects such as meteoroids. It is not clear at this point if this difference could lead to substantially different orbital outcomes that can affect the outcome of our calculation.

Small Near-Earth Objects in the Taurid Resonant Swarm (2509.22602 - Ye et al., 26 Sep 2025) in Section 2: Small NEOs in the TRS and Their Impact Risk