Protection provided by the after-effect of collective agreements

Determine how much protection the legally regulated after-effect of collective agreements provides for employees when establishments adjust working-time arrangements shortly after exiting collective bargaining coverage.

Background

Under German law, collectively agreed provisions continue to apply after an establishment exits collective bargaining coverage until they are replaced by a new agreement. The event-study results indicate that working-time adjustments occur relatively soon after exit, raising a policy-relevant question about the practical protection provided by this statutory after-effect.

The paper explicitly leaves unresolved whether the continuation obligation meaningfully protects employees when establishments can alter working-time arrangements shortly after leaving collective bargaining coverage.

References

This raises the policy-relevant question of how much protection the legally regulated after-effect of collective agreements provides for employees if establishments already adjust working-time arrangements shortly after exiting coverage. However, this is a question that cannot be fully answered in this paper.

— The Myth of Restrictive Working-Time Agreements: Firms' Working-Time Adjustment after Exit from Collective Bargaining  (2610.12049 - Pyka et al., 8 Oct 2026) in Section 7, discussion of Figure 3

We therefore cannot determine how adjustments following exits from collective bargaining coverage are distributed across the workforce.

— The Myth of Restrictive Working-Time Agreements: Firms' Working-Time Adjustment after Exit from Collective Bargaining  (2610.12049 - Pyka et al., 8 Oct 2026) in Section 10, limitations