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Bootstrap validity of OLS/2SLS sequential tests with autocorrelated errors

Prove that residual resampling via the moving block bootstrap yields asymptotically valid critical values for OLS and 2SLS sequential sup-F change-point tests in linear time series regressions with autocorrelated errors and multiple change-points.

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Background

Errors in local projection regressions are typically autocorrelated, making existing wild-bootstrap validity results (which assume martingale difference errors) inapplicable for sequential multiple-break testing. The authors point out a gap and conjecture that a moving block bootstrap could address autocorrelation while preserving validity of the sequential testing framework.

References

There are several types of bootstrap that one can employ, and we conjecture that resampling the residuals by the moving block bootstrap should ensure bootstrap validity of the OLS and 2SLS sequential testing procedures described above.

Testing for multiple change-points in macroeconometrics: an empirical guide and recent developments (2507.22204 - Boldea et al., 29 Jul 2025) in Section 2, Local projections