Determine the impact of precipitation scarcity on Aedes albopictus suitability

Determine how scarcity or absence of annual precipitation affects the habitat suitability and development of Aedes albopictus in Europe, including whether artificial water sources can sustain vector development in dry areas.

Background

The dengue-emergence model incorporates precipitation into the habitat-suitability estimation for Aedes albopictus, but it does not treat scarce or absent annual precipitation as prohibitive for vector development. This modeling choice is consequential because other studies identify precipitation as a potentially dominant factor limiting the future European habitat suitability of Aedes albopictus.

The paper explicitly identifies the effect of precipitation scarcity as unresolved and notes the possibility that artificial water sources could compensate for low natural precipitation. Resolving this issue would improve estimates of future vector suitability and dengue-emergence risk, particularly in dry European regions.

References

Nonetheless, the impact of precipitation scarcity is still under discussion, as the development of the vector could be sustained by artificial sources of water in dry areas.

— Climate change and human mobility will shape dengue emergence risk in Europe  (2608.20079 - Presigny et al., 20 Aug 2026) in Section “Limitations and future work”