Cause of the recent reduction in Germany’s precipitation

Determine whether the observed reduction in precipitation in Germany over the last 20 years is driven by decadal climate variability or represents a long-term trend associated with climate change, in order to explain the concurrent decline in Germany’s potential water supply.

Background

The paper analyzes the feasibility and costs of nuclear energy within Germany’s energy transition, emphasizing constraints from water availability for cooling thermal power plants. The authors examine the potential water supply based on precipitation, evaporation, and inflows, noting a significant decline over the last 20 years.

They attribute this decline mainly to reduced precipitation but explicitly state that the underlying cause of the precipitation decrease is not fully understood. Resolving whether the decline results from decadal climate variability or reflects a persistent climate change trend is important for assessing future reliability of cooling water for thermal power generation and, consequently, the role of nuclear energy in Germany’s energy system.