Determine whether reported CausalPFN coverage assessments were calibrated

Determine whether the experiments reporting low coverage of CausalPFN's credible intervals were conducted after calibrating CausalPFN, in order to assess whether the reported coverage deficiency persists under calibration.

Background

The paper discusses reliability and calibration as important concerns for causal foundation models (CFMs), noting that prior-induced bias and inadequate uncertainty coverage can undermine the interpretation of CFM predictions. In particular, it reports that Mourao et al. found indications of low coverage for CausalPFN's credible intervals.

The paper explicitly identifies an unresolved methodological issue: it is unclear whether those coverage experiments were performed after calibrating CausalPFN. Without knowing whether calibration was applied, the reported low coverage cannot be interpreted as establishing an inherent failure of CausalPFN's uncertainty quantification, since calibration may alter empirical coverage.

References

\citet{mourao2026priordatafittednetworkscausal} show signs of low coverage of CausalPFN's credible intervals, but it is not clear whether they performed these experiments after calibrating CausalPFN \citep{balazadeh2026causalpfn}.

Causal Foundation Models  (2609.03003 - Stith et al., 2 Sep 2026) in Section 5, Subsection “Reliability and calibration”