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Defining cosmological probabilities in quantum cosmology

Determine a precise and operational meaning for cosmological probabilities in quantum cosmology, particularly in single-universe settings where frequentist interpretations fail, in order to assess the role of state normalizability for candidates such as the Chern–Simons–Kodama state.

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Background

In discussing normalizability of the CSK state, the authors point out that probabilistic interpretations in cosmology are subtle: if there is only one universe, frequentist probability may not apply. They note that, absent a clear probabilistic framework, the centrality of normalizability as a physical criterion becomes questionable.

This highlights a conceptual gap: a rigorous definition of cosmological probabilities is needed to clarify whether normalizability should be required for wavefunctionals like the CSK state.

References

Note, however, that it is not entirely clear in what sense one can define cosmological probabilities at all.

Quantum Gravity, de Sitter Space, and Normalizability (2511.05417 - Alexander et al., 7 Nov 2025) in Section 3.1 (Normalizability and the Inner Product), footnote