Characterize the atmospheric and climate effects of rocket-launch ozone impacts

Characterize the future effect of increasing space-launch activity on ozone depletion, including whether the currently small contribution could become significant by 2050.

Background

Rocket launches emit gases and particles throughout the atmosphere, including in regions where their effects are poorly understood. The chapter reports that current launch activity has a limited estimated effect on ozone depletion, while some studies project substantially larger effects as launch activity grows. The magnitude of this future impact remains explicitly uncertain, making improved atmospheric modeling and measurement an unresolved scientific need.

References

Today, launch activity has a limited effect on ozone depletion, estimated at below 0.1% (Voigt et al, 2013), but this could significantly increase with space launch activity. Some studies suggest a significant impact by 2050 (Ross & Vedda, 2018; Miraux, 2022), however this estimate remains highly uncertain.

— Space Sustainability: The Global Commons  (2610.21517 - Frolova et al., 15 Oct 2026) in Section 2.3.2, “Atmospheric impacts from launches”

Critically, we still remain in the dark about how these metals may affect our climate (Murphy et al., 2023; Schulz et al., 2025; ESA, 2023a).

— Space Sustainability: The Global Commons  (2610.21517 - Frolova et al., 15 Oct 2026) in Section 2.3.3, “Reentry pollution”