Boundary crisis and long transients of the Atlantic overturning circulation mediated by an edge state (2504.20002v1)

Abstract: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large-scale ocean current and vital climate component, could transition to a substantially weakened flow state. Despite severe associated impacts, it remains difficult to reliably estimate the proximity to potential critical thresholds and predict the AMOC's fate under global warming. To advance our understanding of Earth system stability, a global view on the dynamics is needed beyond the local stability analysis underlying, e.g., standard early warning signs. Here we explore the phase space of an intermediate-complexity climate model featuring a metastable AMOC. For two atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) levels, we explicitly compute the edge state (also called Melancholia state), a chaotic saddle embedded in the basin boundary that separates the strong and weak AMOC attractors found in the model. While being unstable, the edge state can govern the transient climate for centuries. Its dynamics exhibits strong centennial AMOC oscillations driven by atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions in the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that at CO$_2$ levels projected to be reached in the next decades, the simulated AMOC undergoes a boundary crisis where the current AMOC attractor collides with the edge state. Near but beyond the crisis, long chaotic transients occur due to a resulting ghost state, causing a splitting of ensemble trajectories under time-dependent forcing. Rooted in dynamical systems theory, our results offer an interpretation of large ensemble variances and a so-called stochastic bifurcation observed in earth system models under intermediate forcing scenarios.