Assess whether the expansion of transformative agreements is beneficial

Determine whether the rapid increase in the number of articles published under transformative agreements, including publish-and-read contracts that replace subscription fees with fixed per-article payments, represents a change for the better for the academic publishing market.

Background

The paper notes that the number of articles published under transformative agreements has grown sharply—from roughly 100,000 in 2020 to nearly 900,000 in 2023—often interpreted as evidence of change in the publishing market. The author argues that despite this growth, it is unclear whether such change yields positive outcomes, given potential pricing implications and market power dynamics of incumbent publishers.

Transformative agreements, especially publish-and-read (PAR) schemes, are intended to shift payments from subscriptions to per-article fees while increasing open access. The paper questions whether this design actually improves the situation or unintentionally reinforces incumbents' market power and raises barriers to entry.