Causal explanation for flat or declining incidence at specific publishers

Ascertain whether the recent flat or declining retraction incidence observed at Nature Portfolio and Oxford University Press is attributable to tighter screening and quality-control policies or to other factors unrelated to editorial interventions.

Background

Publisher-level analyses show heterogeneous dynamics, with some major publishers exhibiting exponential growth in incidence while others appear to have stabilized or declined.

The authors note that for certain publishers the apparent improvement could be due to strengthened workflows, but they cannot attribute causality given available evidence.

References

By contrast, some publishers now show flat or declining incidence: e.g., Nature Portfolio, and Oxford University Press, although we cannot conclude if this is due to tighter screening and quality controls (Fig.~\ref{fig:countries_publishers}D).

— The Retraction Epidemic in Science Across Publishers, Fields, and Countries  (2604.02302 - Venturini et al., 2 Apr 2026) in Results, Regional Patterns and Publisher Effects