Long-Term Alzheimers Disease Prediction: A Novel Image Generation Method Using Temporal Parameter Estimation with Normal Inverse Gamma Distribution on Uneven Time Series

Abstract: Image generation can provide physicians with an imaging diagnosis basis in the prediction of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Recent research has shown that long-term AD predictions by image generation often face difficulties maintaining disease-related characteristics when dealing with irregular time intervals in sequential data. Considering that the time-related aspects of the distribution can reflect changes in disease-related characteristics when images are distributed unevenly, this research proposes a model to estimate the temporal parameter within the Normal Inverse Gamma Distribution (T-NIG) to assist in generating images over the long term. The T-NIG model employs brain images from two different time points to create intermediate brain images, forecast future images, and predict the disease. T-NIG is designed by identifying features using coordinate neighborhoods. It incorporates a time parameter into the normal inverse gamma distribution to understand how features change in brain imaging sequences that have varying time intervals. Additionally, T-NIG utilizes uncertainty estimation to reduce both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in the model, which arise from insufficient temporal data. In particular, the T-NIG model demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term prediction tasks within the dataset. Experimental results indicate that T-NIG is proficient in forecasting disease progression while maintaining disease-related characteristics, even when faced with an irregular temporal data distribution.