The Influence of Neighborhood Design on the Sustainability of US Suburbs

Abstract: The growth of suburbs in the US has led to significant sustainability challenges; yet, it remains unclear whether these challenges stem from the remoteness of suburbs from city centers or the specific designs used to develop them. This paper examines how Garden City Design (GCD) -- one of the most influential suburban design paradigms since the early 20th century -- impacts the social and environmental outcomes of neighborhoods. I first introduce a composite measure of GCD, derived from street layouts and block configurations, to quantify its nationwide adoption. I use this measure combined with mobility and emissions data to estimate the impact of GCD on neighborhood outcomes using complementary identification strategies, including ordinary least squares (OLS), matching estimators, and an instrumental variables (IV) approach that exploits historical variation in GCD adoption. Results show that GCD leads to worse sustainability outcomes, including increased greenhouse gas emissions, greater social isolation, and higher sedentary behavior. The prevalence of GCD accounts for 27-38% of the adverse effects associated with suburbanization, underscoring the crucial role that neighborhood design plays in shaping urban sustainability.