Overlap-weighted orthogonal meta-learner for treatment effect estimation over time (2510.19643v1)

Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment sequences, which creates severe overlap problems. Existing meta-learners for the time-varying setting typically assume adequate treatment overlap, and thus suffer from exploding estimation variance when the overlap is low. To address this problem, we introduce a novel overlap-weighted orthogonal (WO) meta-learner for estimating HTEs that targets regions in the observed data with high probability of receiving the interventional treatment sequences. This offers a fully data-driven approach through which our WO-learner can counteract instabilities as in existing meta-learners and thus obtain more reliable HTE estimates. Methodologically, we develop a novel Neyman-orthogonal population risk function that minimizes the overlap-weighted oracle risk. We show that our WO-learner has the favorable property of Neyman-orthogonality, meaning that it is robust against misspecification in the nuisance functions. Further, our WO-learner is fully model-agnostic and can be applied to any machine learning model. Through extensive experiments with both transformer and LSTM backbones, we demonstrate the benefits of our novel WO-learner.