H-DDx: A Hierarchical Evaluation Framework for Differential Diagnosis (2510.03700v1)

Abstract: An accurate differential diagnosis (DDx) is essential for patient care, shaping therapeutic decisions and influencing outcomes. Recently, LLMs have emerged as promising tools to support this process by generating a DDx list from patient narratives. However, existing evaluations of LLMs in this domain primarily rely on flat metrics, such as Top-k accuracy, which fail to distinguish between clinically relevant near-misses and diagnostically distant errors. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce H-DDx, a hierarchical evaluation framework that better reflects clinical relevance. H-DDx leverages a retrieval and reranking pipeline to map free-text diagnoses to ICD-10 codes and applies a hierarchical metric that credits predictions closely related to the ground-truth diagnosis. In benchmarking 22 leading models, we show that conventional flat metrics underestimate performance by overlooking clinically meaningful outputs, with our results highlighting the strengths of domain-specialized open-source models. Furthermore, our framework enhances interpretability by revealing hierarchical error patterns, demonstrating that LLMs often correctly identify the broader clinical context even when the precise diagnosis is missed.