Confidence and Dispersity as Signals: Unsupervised Model Evaluation and Ranking

Abstract: Assessing model generalization under distribution shift is essential for real-world deployment, particularly when labeled test data is unavailable. This paper presents a unified and practical framework for unsupervised model evaluation and ranking in two common deployment settings: (1) estimating the accuracy of a fixed model on multiple unlabeled test sets (dataset-centric evaluation), and (2) ranking a set of candidate models on a single unlabeled test set (model-centric evaluation). We demonstrate that two intrinsic properties of model predictions, namely confidence (which reflects prediction certainty) and dispersity (which captures the diversity of predicted classes), together provide strong and complementary signals for generalization. We systematically benchmark a set of confidence-based, dispersity-based, and hybrid metrics across a wide range of model architectures, datasets, and distribution shift types. Our results show that hybrid metrics consistently outperform single-aspect metrics on both dataset-centric and model-centric evaluation settings. In particular, the nuclear norm of the prediction matrix provides robust and accurate performance across tasks, including real-world datasets, and maintains reliability under moderate class imbalance. These findings offer a practical and generalizable basis for unsupervised model assessment in deployment scenarios.