Lossless Compression: A New Benchmark for Time Series Model Evaluation (2509.21002v1)

Abstract: The evaluation of time series models has traditionally focused on four canonical tasks: forecasting, imputation, anomaly detection, and classification. While these tasks have driven significant progress, they primarily assess task-specific performance and do not rigorously measure whether a model captures the full generative distribution of the data. We introduce lossless compression as a new paradigm for evaluating time series models, grounded in Shannon's source coding theorem. This perspective establishes a direct equivalence between optimal compression length and the negative log-likelihood, providing a strict and unified information-theoretic criterion for modeling capacity. Then We define a standardized evaluation protocol and metrics. We further propose and open-source a comprehensive evaluation framework TSCom-Bench, which enables the rapid adaptation of time series models as backbones for lossless compression. Experiments across diverse datasets on state-of-the-art models, including TimeXer, iTransformer, and PatchTST, demonstrate that compression reveals distributional weaknesses overlooked by classic benchmarks. These findings position lossless compression as a principled task that complements and extends existing evaluation for time series modeling.