Requirements for Early Quantum Advantage and Quantum Utility in the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem

Abstract: We introduce a transparent, encoding-agnostic framework for determining when the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) can achieve early quantum advantage. Our analysis shows this is unlikely on noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) hardware even in best case scenarios that use the most qubit-efficient direct encodings. Closed-form resource counts, combined with recent device benchmarks, yield three decisive go/no-go figures of merit: the quantum feasibility point and the qubit- and gate-feasibility lines, which place any CVRP instance on a single decision diagram. Contrasting a direct QUBO mapping with a space-efficient higher-order (HOBO) encoding reveals a large gap. Applied to early-advantage benchmarks such as Golden-5, our diagram shows that HOBO circuits require only 7,685 qubits, whereas comparable QUBO encodings still exceed 200,000 qubits. In addition to identifying candidate instances for early quantum advantage in CVRP, the framework provides a unifying go/no-go metric that ingests any CVRP encoding together with any hardware profile and highlights when quantum devices could challenge classical heuristics. Quantum advantage in CVRP would likely require innovative problem decomposition techniques.