Making AI Inevitable: Historical Perspective and the Problems of Predicting Long-Term Technological Change

Abstract: This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material disagreements over the technologies themselves. It focuses on the deep disagreements over whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) will prove transformative for human society; a question that is analytically prior to that of whether this transformative effect will help or harm humanity. The study begins by distinguishing two fundamental camps in this debate. The first of these can be identified as "transformationalists," who argue that continued AI development will inevitably have a profound effect on society. Opposed to them are "skeptics," a more eclectic group united by their disbelief that AI can or will live up to such high expectations. Each camp admits further "strong" and "weak" variants depending on their tolerance for epistemic risk. These stylized contrasts help to identify a set of fundamental questions that shape the camps' respective interpretations of the future of AI. Three questions in particular are focused on: the possibility of non-biological intelligence, the appropriate time frame of technological predictions, and the assumed trajectory of technological development. In highlighting these specific points of non-technical disagreement, this study demonstrates the wide range of different arguments used to justify either the transformationalist or skeptical position. At the same time, it highlights the strong argumentative burden of the transformationalist position, the way that belief in this position creates competitive pressures to achieve first-mover advantage, and the need to widen the concept of "expertise" in debates surrounding the future development of AI.