Entropy-Based Methods to Address Sampling Bias in Archaeological Predictive Modeling

Abstract: Predictive modeling in archaeology is essential for the understanding of people's behavior in the past and for guiding heritage conservation. However, spatial sampling bias caused by uneven research effort can severely limit model reliability. This research describes a novel new framework that integrates entropy-based corrections to measure and minimize such biases in archaeological modeling of foresight. Leveraging the open access data of the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, we employ Shannon entropy to determine survey coverage and assign appropriate weights to pseudo-absence points. We combine these weights with predictive models such as Bayesian Spatial Logistic Regression (via R-INLA), Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy and Random Forests. Our findings prove that entropy-aware models exhibit improved accuracy and robustness, especially for under-surveyed regions. This approach not only advances methodological transparency, but also improves the interpretation of archaeological prediction under conditions of data uncertainty. The proposed framework offers a scalable, theoretically grounded strategy for addressing spatial bias in archaeological datasets.