A Theory of $θ$-Expectations

Abstract: The canonical theory of stochastic calculus under ambiguity, founded on sub-additivity, is insensitive to non-convex uncertainty structures, leading to an identifiability impasse. This paper develops a mathematical framework for an identifiable calculus sensitive to non-convex geometry. We introduce the $\theta$-BSDE, a class of backward stochastic differential equations where the driver is determined by a pointwise maximization over a primitive, possibly non-convex, uncertainty set. The system's tractability is predicated not on convexity, but on a global analytic hypothesis: the existence of a unique and globally Lipschitz maximizer map for the driver function. Under this hypothesis, which carves out a tractable class of models, we establish well-posedness via a fixed-point argument. For a distinct, geometrically regular class of models, we prove a result of independent interest: under non-degeneracy conditions from Malliavin calculus, the maximizer is unique along any solution path, ensuring the model's internal consistency. We clarify the fundamental logical gap between this pathwise property and the global regularity required by our existence proof. The resulting valuation operator defines a dynamically consistent expectation, and we establish its connection to fully nonlinear PDEs via a Feynman-Kac formula.