Generalizing the Levins metapopulation model to time varying colonization and extinction rates

Abstract: The metapopulation theory explores the population persistence in fragmented habitats by considering a balance between the extinction of local populations and recolonization of empty sites. In general, the extinction and colonization rates have been considered as constant parameters and the novelty of this paper is to assume that they are subject to deterministic variations. We noticed that an averaging approach proposed by C. Puccia and R. Levins can be adapted to construct the upper and lower averages of the difference between the extinction and colonization rates, whose sign is useful to determine either the permanence or the extinction of the metapopulation. In fact, we use these averages to revisit the classical model introduced by R. Levins. From a mathematical perspective, these averages can be seen as Bohl exponents whereas the corresponding analysis is carried out by using tools of non autonomous dynamics. Last but not least, compared with the Levins model, the resulting dynamics of the time varying model shares the persistence/extinction scenario when the above stated upper and lower averages have the same sign but also raises open questions about metapopulation persistence in the case of the averages have different sign.