Calibrating Verbal Uncertainty as a Linear Feature to Reduce Hallucinations (2503.14477v2)

Abstract: LLMs often adopt an assertive language style also when making false claims. Such overconfident hallucinations'' mislead users and erode trust. Achieving the ability to express in language the actual degree of uncertainty around a claim is therefore of great importance. We find thatverbal uncertainty'' is governed by a single linear feature in the representation space of LLMs, and show that this has only moderate correlation with the actual ``semantic uncertainty'' of the model. We apply this insight and show that (1) the mismatch between semantic and verbal uncertainty is a better predictor of hallucinations than semantic uncertainty alone and (2) we can intervene on verbal uncertainty at inference time and reduce confident hallucinations on short-form answers, achieving an average relative reduction of ~30%.