Long-range dependent mortality modeling with cointegration (2503.09377v1)

Abstract: Empirical studies with publicly available life tables identify long-range dependence (LRD) in national mortality data. Although the longevity market is supposed to benchmark against the national force of mortality, insurers are more concerned about the forces of mortality associated with their own portfolios than the national ones. Recent advances on mortality modeling make use of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) to capture LRD. A theoretically flexible approach even considers mixed fBm (mfBm). Using Volterra processes, we prove that the direct use of mfBm encounters the identification problem so that insurers hardly detect the LRD effect from their portfolios. Cointegration techniques can effectively bring the LRD information within the national force of mortality to the mortality models for insurers' experienced portfolios. Under the open-loop equilibrium control framework, the explicit and unique equilibrium longevity hedging strategy is derived for cointegrated forces of mortality with LRD. Using the derived hedging strategy, our numerical examples show that the accuracy of estimating cointegration is crucial for hedging against the longevity exposure of insurers with LRD national force of mortality.