Analysis of the Impact of the Union Budget Announcements on the Indian Stock Market: A Fractal Perspective

Abstract: The stock market closely monitors macroeconomic policy announcements, such as annual budget events, due to their substantial influence on various economic participants. These events tend to impact the stock markets initially before affecting the real sector. Our study aims to analyze the effects of the budget on the Indian stock market, specifically focusing on the announcement for the year 2024. We will compare this with the years 2023, 2022, and 2020, assessing its impact on the NIFTY50 index using average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) over a period of -15 and +15 days, including the budget day. This study utilizes an innovative approach involving the fractal interpolation function, paired with fractal dimensional analysis, to study the fluctuations arising from budget announcements. The fractal perspective on the data offers an effective framework for understanding complex variations.