Does DESI 2024 Confirm $Λ$CDM? (2404.08633v2)

Abstract: We demonstrate that a $\sim 2 \sigma$ discrepancy with the Planck-$\Lambda$CDM cosmology in DESI Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ translates into an unexpectedly large $\Omega_m$ value, $\Omega_m = 0.668^{+0.180}_{-0.169}$. We independently confirm that this anomaly drives the preference for $w_0 > -1$ in DESI data confronted to the $w_0 w_a$CDM model. We show that redshift bins of DESI constraints allow $\Omega_m$ to wiggle at the $\sim 2 \sigma$ level with increasing effective redshift in the $\Lambda$CDM model. Given that LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ is at odds with Type Ia supernovae in overlapping redshifts, we expect that this anomaly will decrease in statistical significance with future DESI data releases leaving an increasing $\Omega_m$ trend with effective redshift at higher redshifts. We estimate the significance of the latter in DESI data at $\sim 1.8 \sigma$ and comment on how it dovetails with independent observations. It is imperative to understand what makes DESI LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ an outlier when it comes to $\Omega_m$ determinations.