Dislike of general opinion makes for tight elections

Abstract: In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events are the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such large collections of diverse individuals. Many sociophysics models reproduce the emergence of collective human behavior with interacting agents, which respond to their environment according to simple rules, modulated by random fluctuations. A paragon of this class is the Ising model which, when interactions are strong, predicts that order can emerge from a chaotic initial state. In contrast with many elections, however, this model favors a strong majority. Here, we introduce a new element to this classical theory, which accounts for the influence of opinion polls on the electorate. This brings about a new phase in which two groups divide the opinion equally. These political camps are spatially segregated, and the sharp boundary that separates them makes the system size-dependent, even in the limit of a large electorate. Election data show that, over the last 30 years, countries with more than about a million voters often found themselves in this state, whereas elections in smaller countries yielded more consensual results. We suggest that this transition hinges on the electorate's awareness of the general opinion.