Acceleration of Solvation Free Energy Calculation via Thermodynamic Integration Coupled with Gaussian Process Regression and Improved Gelman-Rubin Convergence Diagnostics

Abstract: The determination of the solvation free energy of ions and molecules holds profound importance across a spectrum of applications spanning chemistry, biology, energy storage, and the environment. Molecular dynamics simulations are a powerful tool for computing this critical parameter. Nevertheless, the accurate and efficient calculation of solvation free energy becomes a formidable endeavor when dealing with complex systems characterized by potent Coulombic interactions and sluggish ion dynamics and, consequently, slow transition across various metastable states. In the present study, we expose limitations stemming from the conventional calculation of the statistical inefficiency g in the thermodynamic integration method, a factor that can hinder the determination of convergence of the solvation free energy and its associated uncertainty. Instead, we propose a robust scheme based on Gelman-Rubin convergence diagnostics. We leverage this improved estimation of uncertainties to introduce an innovative accelerated thermodynamic integration method based on Gaussian Process regression. This methodology is applied to the calculation of the solvation free energy of trivalent rare earth elements immersed in ionic liquids, a scenario where the aforementioned challenges render standard approaches ineffective. The proposed method proves effective in computing solvation free energy in situations where traditional thermodynamic integration methods fall short.