TrTr: A Versatile Pre-Trained Large Traffic Model based on Transformer for Capturing Trajectory Diversity in Vehicle Population

Abstract: Understanding trajectory diversity is a fundamental aspect of addressing practical traffic tasks. However, capturing the diversity of trajectories presents challenges, particularly with traditional machine learning and recurrent neural networks due to the requirement of large-scale parameters. The emerging Transformer technology, renowned for its parallel computation capabilities enabling the utilization of models with hundreds of millions of parameters, offers a promising solution. In this study, we apply the Transformer architecture to traffic tasks, aiming to learn the diversity of trajectories within vehicle populations. We analyze the Transformer's attention mechanism and its adaptability to the goals of traffic tasks, and subsequently, design specific pre-training tasks. To achieve this, we create a data structure tailored to the attention mechanism and introduce a set of noises that correspond to spatio-temporal demands, which are incorporated into the structured data during the pre-training process. The designed pre-training model demonstrates excellent performance in capturing the spatial distribution of the vehicle population, with no instances of vehicle overlap and an RMSE of 0.6059 when compared to the ground truth values. In the context of time series prediction, approximately 95% of the predicted trajectories' speeds closely align with the true speeds, within a deviation of 7.5144m/s. Furthermore, in the stability test, the model exhibits robustness by continuously predicting a time series ten times longer than the input sequence, delivering smooth trajectories and showcasing diverse driving behaviors. The pre-trained model also provides a good basis for downstream fine-tuning tasks. The number of parameters of our model is over 50 million.