Transfinite Modal Logic: a Semi-quantitative Explanation for Bayesian Reasoning

Abstract: Bayesian reasoning plays a significant role both in human rationality and in machine learning. In this paper, we introduce transfinite modal logic, which combines modal logic with ordinal arithmetic, in order to formalize Bayesian reasoning semi-quantitatively. Technically, we first investigate some nontrivial properties of ordinal arithmetic, which then enable us to expand normal modal logic's semantics naturally and elegantly onto the novel transfinite modal logic, while still keeping the ordinary definition of Kripke models totally intact. Despite all the transfinite mathematical definition, we argue that in practice, this logic can actually fit into a completely finite interpretation as well. We suggest that transfinite modal logic captures the essence of Bayesian reasoning in a rather clear and simple form, in particular, it provides a perfect explanation for Sherlock Holmes' famous saying, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." We also prove a counterpart of finite model property theorem for our logic.