Temporal Point Process Graphical Models

Abstract: Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among different components of a multivariate point process. In our model, the intensity of an event stream can depend on the historical events in a nonlinear way. We provide a procedure that allows us to estimate the parameters in the model with a convex loss function in the high-dimensional setting. For the approximation error introduced during the implementation, we also establish the error bound for our estimators. We demonstrate the performance of our method with extensive simulations and a spike train data set.