Efficient uncertainty quantification for Monte Carlo dose calculations using importance (re-)weighting

Abstract: The high precision and conformity of intensity-modulated particle therapy (IMPT) comes at the cost of susceptibility to treatment uncertainties in particle range and patient set-up. Dose uncertainty quantification and mitigation, which is usually based on sampled error scenarios, however becomes challenging when computing the dose with computationally expensive but accurate Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. This paper introduces an importance (re-)weighting method in MC history scoring to concurrently construct estimates for error scenarios, the expected dose and its variance from a single set of MC simulated particle histories. The approach relies on a multivariate Gaussian input and uncertainty model, which assigns probabilities to the initial phase space sample, enabling the use of different correlation models. Exploring and adapting bivariate emittance parametrizations for the beam shape, accuracy can be traded between that of the uncertainty or the nominal dose estimate. The method was implemented using the MC code TOPAS and tested for proton IMPT plan delivery in comparison to a reference scenario estimate. We achieve accurate results for set-up uncertainties ($\gamma_{3mm/3\%} \geq 99.99\%$) and expectedly lower but still sufficient agreement for range uncertainties, which are approximated with uncertainty over the energy distribution ($\gamma_{3 mm/3\%} \geq 99.50\%$ ($E[\boldsymbol{d}]$), $\gamma_{3mm/3\%} \geq 91.69\%$ ($\sigma(\boldsymbol{d})$) ). Initial experiments on a water phantom, a prostate and a liver case show that the re-weighting approach lowers the CPU time by more than an order of magnitude. Further, we show that uncertainty induced by interplay and other dynamic influences may be approximated using suitable error correlation models.