Domain Adaptation for Time Series Forecasting via Attention Sharing (2102.06828v9)

Abstract: Recently, deep neural networks have gained increasing popularity in the field of time series forecasting. A primary reason for their success is their ability to effectively capture complex temporal dynamics across multiple related time series. The advantages of these deep forecasters only start to emerge in the presence of a sufficient amount of data. This poses a challenge for typical forecasting problems in practice, where there is a limited number of time series or observations per time series, or both. To cope with this data scarcity issue, we propose a novel domain adaptation framework, Domain Adaptation Forecaster (DAF). DAF leverages statistical strengths from a relevant domain with abundant data samples (source) to improve the performance on the domain of interest with limited data (target). In particular, we use an attention-based shared module with a domain discriminator across domains and private modules for individual domains. We induce domain-invariant latent features (queries and keys) and retrain domain-specific features (values) simultaneously to enable joint training of forecasters on source and target domains. A main insight is that our design of aligning keys allows the target domain to leverage source time series even with different characteristics. Extensive experiments on various domains demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic and real-world datasets, and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of our design choices.