Regression-based Network Reconstruction with Nodal and Dyadic Covariates and Random Effects

Abstract: Network (or matrix) reconstruction is a general problem which occurs if the margins of a matrix are given and the matrix entries need to be predicted. In this paper we show that the predictions obtained from the iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP) or equivalently maximum entropy (ME) can be obtained by restricted maximum likelihood estimation relying on augmented Lagrangian optimization. Based on the equivalence we extend the framework of network reconstruction towards regression by allowing for exogenous covariates and random heterogeneity effects. The proposed estimation approach is compared with different competing methods for network reconstruction and matrix estimation. Exemplary, we apply the approach to interbank lending data, provided by the Bank for International Settlement (BIS). This dataset provides full knowledge of the real network and is therefore suitable to evaluate the predictions of our approach. It is shown that the inclusion of exogenous information allows for superior predictions in terms of $L_1$ and $L_2$ errors. Additionally, the approach allows to obtain prediction intervals via bootstrap that can be used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the predictions.