Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength from Inner Heliospheric In Situ Observations (1610.06713v1)

Abstract: Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, which forms the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, Bz and the resulting Dst index at Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1AU). On 2012 June 12-16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed the by the STEREO imagers, and by Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 AU, 6 degree away from the Sun Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA-Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed at Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: -96 and -114 nT (from 2 Dst models), observed: -71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 +- 23 km s-1, observed: 488 +- 30 km s-1) and timing (6 +- 1 hours after actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hours. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth, or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun--Earth line.