Study of sunspot group morphological variations leading to flaring events (1401.1962v1)

Abstract: It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot data, the targeted phenomenon is the pre-flare behaviour of the strong horizontal gradients of the magnetic field at the location of the flare. The empirical basis of the work is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) sunspot catalogue. Case studies of two active regions and five X-flares have been carried out to find possible candidates for pre-flare signatures. It has been found that the following properties of the temporal variations of horizontal magnetic field gradient are promising for flare forecast: the speed of its growth, its maximal value, its decrease after the maximum until the flare and the rate of its fluctuation.