Bayesian Wavelet Shrinkage of the Haar-Fisz Transformed Wavelet Periodogram

Abstract: It is increasingly being realised that many real world time series are not stationary and exhibit evolving second-order autocovariance or spectral structure. This article introduces a Bayesian approach for modelling the evolving wavelet spectrum of a locally stationary wavelet time series. Our new method works by combining the advantages of a Haar-Fisz transformed spectrum with a simple, but powerful, Bayesian wavelet shrinkage method. Our new method produces excellent and stable spectral estimates and this is demonstrated via simulated data and on differenced infant ECG data. A major additional benefit of the Bayesian paradigm is that we obtain rigorous and useful credible intervals of the evolving spectral structure. We show how the Bayesian credible intervals provide extra insight into the infant ECG data.