Establish the validity of quasi-equilibrium early-warning indicators during non-autonomous tipping

Establish whether quasi-equilibrium early-warning indicators remain valid during non-autonomous instabilities, including rate-induced tipping, and whether the relevant observables for early-warning signals remain unchanged.

Background

In rapidly forced climate systems, non-autonomous instabilities can occur while the system is tracking a time-dependent pullback attractor rather than a fixed-parameter equilibrium. Under these conditions, the indicators derived for quasi-equilibrium bifurcations may no longer provide reliable warnings.

The paper specifically identifies two unresolved issues: whether quasi-equilibrium indicators continue to hold for non-autonomous instabilities, and whether the observables that carry early-warning signals remain the same as the forcing changes. Resolving these issues is necessary for interpreting early-warning signals under realistic climate forcing rates.

References

Similarly, for non-autonomous instabilities, it is uncertain whether the quasi-equilibrium indicators hold , and whether relevant observables for EWS (see next section) remain the same.

— Predicting tipping points: The many shades of non-equilibrium and catch-22s of early-warning  (2609.10378 - Lohmann, 9 Sep 2026) in Section 2.2, “Five shades of non-equilibrium”