Determine the prevalence of rate-induced tipping in state-of-the-art climate models

Determine how prevalent rate-induced tipping is in state-of-the-art climate models, including models of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet tipping.

Background

Rate-induced tipping occurs when a system fails to track a changing non-equilibrium steady state and tips before the bifurcation at which the present-day state loses stability. The paper notes that this mechanism can arise in several climate-relevant settings, including AMOC box models and Antarctic ice-sheet models.

Although rate-induced tipping has been demonstrated in coarse-resolution AMOC models and evidence exists for it in Antarctic ice-sheet tipping, its prevalence across state-of-the-art climate models remains unresolved. Establishing its frequency is important for assessing whether early-warning signals based on equilibrium bifurcations can reliably anticipate climate transitions.