Predictability of Earth’s long-term environmental transitions

Determine whether Earth’s long-term environmental transitions—including atmospheric oxygenation—are inherently predictable or probable within the externally allotted time for biological evolution, based on biogeochemical dynamics and feedbacks.

Background

The authors’ alternative to the hard-steps model requires that major environmental transitions be predictable outcomes of planetary–biogeochemical dynamics rather than rare events. They question whether this applies to Earth.

Establishing predictability would support the view that evolutionary milestones occurred when environmental windows opened, without invoking intrinsic improbability.