Validate the transferability of the 1932-trail density correction to the 2034 core encounter

Determine whether the empirical density factor calibrated from far-tail, two-revolution encounters of the 1932 Leonid trail remains valid for the three-revolution, near-core 2034 encounter, in order to establish whether the correction represents a trail-wide production deficit or a section-specific far-tail effect.

Background

The model over-predicts the 1932-trail encounter observed in 2000 by a factor of 18.6 and therefore introduces an empirical density factor of 1/18.6. Applying that factor to the 1999 and 1998 encounters produces improved agreement, but all three calibration encounters sample two-revolution sections far out on the ejection distribution.

The 2034 encounter samples the same trail one revolution later and essentially at its core. Applying the factor there assumes that the excess is an intrinsic property of the entire trail rather than a consequence of the faint-rich far-tail section encountered in 2000. The paper explicitly leaves this transferability unresolved; the 2033 or 2034 observations are expected to discriminate between the alternatives.

References

Applying $C$ there assumes the excess is a property of the trail rather than of its far tail. The three encounters share the former reading --- one factor fits sections at three different node distances and two different sides of Earth's orbit --- but all three lie in the same regime, so the assumption is an extrapolation and cannot be tested until 2033 or 2034 itself tests it.

— A calibrated dust-trail model of the Leonid meteoroid stream and forecasts of the 2031-2035 encounters  (2608.25456 - Abe, 26 Aug 2026) in Section 5, paragraph “Calibrating the 1932 trail on the 2000 outburst”; Section 6, paragraph “2034: two maxima, twenty hours apart”; Conclusions